Why is it dangerous? Not because I am in any physical peril – I’ve not been to a Trump rally. Rather, it’s difficult to be a dispassionate observer of politics without one’s own bias getting in the way, and then you can just sound like you are hectoring. I don’t have too much of a bias in this election on policy, as my personal politics are neither Republican nor Democrat: I’m too socially liberal to vote for the GOP, and too economically liberal to vote Democrat. Luckily, as an immigrant, I’m not allowed to vote so I don’t have to make that decision.
In any case, South Carolina is not “in play”. According to the polls, South Carolina’s 9 electoral votes are around 93% likely to go to Trump. Demographically, Trump gets more support from those who identify as religious, those who are older, those who are white, and those with less education. Clinton takes all the opposite supporters: the young, the less religious, the better educated, plus around 85% support from blacks.
Given these demographics, it’s probably no surprise that Clinton is ahead on the West Coast and in the North East, whilst the rest of the country is swathed in Republican red, barring a few outliers like Colorado. It’s all fascinating for data geeks – the problem is that the wall-to-wall news coverage is finally starting to grate.
Personally, I don’t find either of the candidates very inspiring. Of course if I had to choose, I couldn’t imagine an unstable egomaniac like Trump as Commander-in-Chief, so I would plump for Hillary. But it’s certainly not a positive choice for me, nor would it be for many others, more like the lesser of two evils. Less pro-Hillary than anti-Donald.
And here is where the potential problem arises, and we can draw an unfortunate parallel with Brexit. In the UK, Millennials were strongly in favour of remaining in Europe, but didn’t turn out to vote, only to be disgusted by the outcome. Here in the US, Millennials and younger voters were strong supporters of Obama, but are not as enthusiastic about Clinton. Of course, they would be appalled by the prospect of a Trump Presidency. But will they turn out and vote? Or will they, as in Britain, stay at home and then complain furiously on Twitter that they didn’t like the result they couldn’t be bothered to vote for.
Anyway, the best commentary on the Presidential election we have seen is this billboard, which has appeared just outside Charleston:
South of the Mason-Dixon line 